CivicNZ

CivicNZ · Methods

How CivicNZ reads wellbeing official statistics

Verdicts are Better, Worse, Flat or Insufficient. They use the published CivicNZ trend rule: official significance and confidence intervals first, then a like-for-like year-on-year change, then Theil–Sen only on four or more official points spanning two years. Editors do not set them. The composite NZ Index is experimental and is not used as a desk verdict.

Back to wellbeing

Non-partisan charter

  1. Official primary sources only: Stats NZ General Social Survey and Ngā Tūtohu Aotearoa / Wellbeing statistics.
  2. Verdicts are Better, Worse, or Flat. They use published 95% CIs or official ‘similar’ / ‘down’ / ‘up’ wording when Stats NZ prints them, otherwise Theil–Sen. Editors do not set them.
  3. Every income, household-type, ethnicity, and region comparison shows the raw gap beside any official adjusted gap.
  4. An explained share is shown only when both a raw and an official adjusted gap exist. It is descriptive, not causal.
  5. A fall in trust or belonging is an association with the survey year. It is not a verdict on any party or minister.
  6. Findings carry an evidence-strength rating and a caveats note. Sampling error and one-way tables are named.
  7. CivicNZ does not publish causal claims, cultural generalisations, or contrarian readings the table cannot support.
  8. The desk is non-partisan.

How a verdict is derived

  • Method: CivicNZ trend rule. Labels: Better, Worse, Flat, Insufficient.
  • Threshold: Direction-of-good is taken from the series catalogue. Official 95% significance wording and published confidence intervals come first. Otherwise a like-for-like recent change (same quarter or month a year earlier, or the previous annual point) is the headline, including Flat. Theil–Sen is longer-run context and does not override that headline; it is used only when no same-season pair exists and there are four or more official points spanning at least two years. Series that do not meet the minimum observations or period, or survey shares without published CIs, are Insufficient — never Flat-as-a-stand-in. CivicNZ does not apply a homemade 0.2-unit / 2% Flat band. Verdicts are never hand-set.
  • A topic verdict uses published CIs or official significance language on the primary series when the source prints them. Otherwise it is the like-for-like year-on-year change. Theil–Sen is longer-run context and does not override that headline. Companion series and short quarterly ticks are shown, not averaged into the headline. The area chip is the plurality of topic verdicts, and the lead sentence matches that chip.
  • Missing values are never imputed. A one-point series, or a seasonal series without the same quarter or month a year earlier, is Insufficient — never Flat-as-a-stand-in.
  • Side-by-side official series (HLPI versus LCI, rents versus incomes) are labelled as association, not causation.

Measured confounders

Every group comparison lists these factors. Status is applied, stratified, context only, or not published — never invented.

  • Household income
  • Household / family type
  • Region
  • Ethnicity
  • Age group
  • Disability status
  • Labour-force status
  • Migrant status
  • Gender / LGBT+

Public JSON

Summary, topics, findings, sources, methods and gaps are free. This launch does not add a paid desk route.

  • /wellbeing/summary
  • /wellbeing/topics
  • /wellbeing/findings
  • /wellbeing/sources
  • /wellbeing/methods
  • /wellbeing/gaps

What is not sourced here

CivicNZ lists the official extracts it does not have, instead of filling the gap.

GSS loneliness most/all-of-the-time national rates for 2014 and 2018

The 2023 national 4.0% reading is compiled from Wellbeing statistics 2023. Earlier national points appear in secondary summaries of the official question but were not restated as a numbered table on the 2023 release page used here. They are not imputed.

Ngā Tūtohu dashboard time series that Stats NZ has stopped updating

Stats NZ notes that some original Ngā Tūtohu series are no longer updated. CivicNZ uses the live GSS wellbeing releases for life satisfaction, purpose, trust, loneliness, and belonging instead of a frozen dashboard extract.

GSS ethnicity × income × region cell-level life satisfaction

The 2023 key facts are one-way group means. An explained share is not computed from one-way tables.